La taille des États-Unis. la récolte de maïs influencera fortement le marché au cours des prochains mois.

Par Darrel Bon, University of Illinois

La taille des États-Unis. la récolte de maïs sera le facteur de prix le plus important sur ce marché au cours des prochains mois. Le marché s'attend à une récolte suffisamment importante pour répondre aux besoins de consommation sans rationnement des prix, mais ne s'attend pas à une augmentation aussi importante des stocks de fin de campagne de commercialisation que prévu il y a un mois. Les prévisions de production de l'USDA seront publiées en septembre. 12 fournira des projections actualisées de la consommation de la campagne de commercialisation, ending stocks and average farm price.

At the margin, the size of the inventory of old crop corn on Sept. 1 will also influence the expected balance of supply and consumption during the current marketing year. Consumption of corn during the final quarter of the 2012-13 marketing year may have exceeded the USDA’s projection in the August WASDE report. If so, stocks of old crop corn on Sept. 1 may have been smaller than currently projected. The consumption of corn for ethanol and by-product production for the year just ended was projected at 4.65 billion bushels. The USDA estimates that 3.448 billion bushels were used for that purpose during the first three quarters of the marketing year. That is 9.7 percent less than consumption during the same period a year earlier and is in line with the 9.3 percent reduction in ethanol production reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.